2026 World Cup Champion Simulator
Simulate every match by team strength and see who lifts the trophy. Finished matches use real scores.
Title Odds Ranking
10,000 simulations
France 
Spain 
Argentina 
Brazil 
England 
Portugal 
Netherlands 
Germany 
Italy 
Belgium 
Uruguay 
Croatia Odds are aggregated from a Monte Carlo simulation, for reference only. Last updated: 2026-06-06.
Single Simulation Run
Hit “Re-simulate” to run a full tournament instantly, from the Round of 32 to the final. Every run differs — favourites win more often, but upsets can strike anytime.
EnglandRound of 32(16)
0-1FranceAET1-2CroatiaAET
1-1
United StatesPK
0-3
Denmark
0-3Germany1-0
Saudi Arabia
3-2
Hungary
3-1
EgyptAET0-1
Japan
2-0
Greece
1-1
JordanPK
1-0
SerbiaAET2-0
Austria
1-1
NigeriaPK
0-2PortugalAET4-2
CameroonRound of 16(8)
0-2Germany3-1United States0-0ItalyPK0-4Senegal2-3Iran0-1Ukraine2-1Netherlands2-1PortugalQuarter-final(4)
1-1FrancePK1-2UkraineAET3-1Senegal0-1EnglandSemi-final(2)
1-2UkraineAET1-2EnglandFinal(1)
2-3EnglandFAQ
Who is most likely to win the 2026 World Cup? +
Across 10,000 simulations based on FIFA ranking and recent form, France leads with a 13.1% title chance, ahead of Spain (12.5%) and Argentina (10.9%).
How does this simulator work? +
Each team’s strength blends FIFA ranking (main weight), historical win rate, last five results and major-tournament pedigree. A Poisson model generates goals per match; group stage decides qualifiers on points, knockouts include extra time and penalties, repeated thousands of times to tally title odds.
Do finished matches use real scores? +
Yes. Completed matches always use their real scores and are never simulated; only unplayed fixtures are projected. As the tournament progresses, the odds converge toward actual results.